About
The Great Powers Influence Index (GPII) is a US Department of Defense Minerva Grant-backed project on strategic competition. Our model and interface help users visualize and navigate critical trends in geopolitics.
We quantify influence by measuring reliance, broken down into DIME (Diplomatic, Informational, Military, and Economic) components. This approach allows us to better differentiate between the targets of US, Russia, and Chinese influence: influence is hard to measure and often exerted behind closed doors, while reliance (or resilience) is more straightforward to quantify.
Watch our overview video and walkthrough to the right for more information.
Methodology
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Our model evaluates observable activities (things like trade, arms sales, and diplomacy) to quantify a latent variable, something that can’t be directly measured. In this case, our latent variable is reliance. The GPII model breaks reliance into three levels: factors, components, and overall reliance scores. Factors are our most granular level, and correspond to the datasets we use to measure reliance. These are grouped into components, which measure the overall importance of diplomatic, informational, military, and economic (DIME) factors in a relationship. Lastly, our reliance scores give you the big picture: how reliant was a country on the United States, Russia, or China in a given year?
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Our model is based on Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), which is a powerful combination of statistical techniques, including path analysis, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and multivariate regression. Path diagrams are a critical feature of SEM, visually representing the hypothesized relationships between variables. The structure of the model includes a 'measurement' model, which predicts latent variables, and a 'structural' model, which defines the relationships between latent variables and observed variables that are not indicators. In this specific model, the latent construct 'reliance' is used to analyze resilience to great power influence.
Our model utilizes Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) as the criterion for parameter estimation. MLE minimizes the differences between the sample covariance matrix and the covariance matrix derived from the hypothesized model. This process ensures the model's convergence by requiring the covariance matrix to be positive definite, thereby avoiding linear dependence between indicators and latent constructs.
Factor loadings indicate the strength of the relationship between observed variables and latent factors. Higher factor loadings suggest a stronger relationship. The square of the factor loadings represents the proportion of variance in the observed variable explained by the latent factor.
While both SEM and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) involve latent variables and data dimensionality reduction, there are critical differences between them. PCA derives principal components to maximize variance explained, but SEM models latent variables as theoretical constructs of interest. These latent variables are linked to observed indicators based on hypothesized causal models, which allows SEM to test specific causal relationships that PCA cannot address.
The GPII Team
Yuval Weber, PhD (Project Lead)
Yuval leads theoretical and applied research efforts on strategic competition and international politics. Prior to leaving government service, Yuval was an Associate Professor at National Intelligence University and Director of the Russia, Europe, Eurasia concentration of studies. Prior teaching and research positions include Harvard University, the Brute Krulak Center at Marine Corps University, Texas A&M’s Bush School of Government and Public Service, and Kennan Institute. Yuval received his doctorate in Government from the University of Texas at Austin.
Tanner Parsons (Data Lead)
Tanner applies advanced analysis and statistical modeling to provide causal interpretations of global reliance. In addition to his work at GPII, he is a Doctoral Student at Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management studying Economics and Quantitative Marketing. Tanner received his Masters Degree in Analytics from Georgia Institute of Technology in 2022
Aaron Schwartzbaum (Product Lead)
Aaron collaborates with our development team and users in building and improving the GPII interface. He has an extensive background in the public sector-facing startup space and political risk, with experience at Altana, Premise Data, Dataminr, and Eurasia Group. He is also a fellow with the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s (FPRI) Eurasia program, where he hosts several podcasts. Aaron holds a Masters Degree in International Relations and Economics from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).